Preheat and prep: Preheat your air fryer to 375°F (190°C). Use an oven-safe dish or a deep air fryer-safe pan that fits in your basket.
Lightly oil the dish.
Sauté base vegetables: Toss the onion, carrots, celery, and bell pepper with 1 tablespoon olive oil, a pinch of salt, and pepper. Air fry for 8–10 minutes, shaking once, until edges start to brown.
Add garlic and tomato paste: Stir in the minced garlic and tomato paste. Air fry for 2–3 minutes to lightly caramelize the paste.
This step boosts umami.
Deglaze with red wine: Carefully pour in the red wine. Stir to loosen browned bits. Air fry for 3–4 minutes to reduce slightly and cook off alcohol flavors.
Build the stew: Add crushed tomatoes, broth, thyme, bay leaf, smoked paprika (if using), and potatoes or white beans.
Season with 1/2 teaspoon salt and several grinds of pepper. Stir well.
Simmer in the air fryer: Air fry at 360°F (182°C) for 15 minutes. Stir halfway to ensure even heating.
If the stew thickens too quickly, add a splash more broth.
Taste and balance: Check seasoning. If the tomatoes taste sharp, stir in the sugar or honey. Add salt and pepper as needed.
Finish with olive oil: Remove the bay leaf.
Stir in 1 tablespoon olive oil for a velvety finish. Let the stew rest 5 minutes to settle.
Serve: Ladle into bowls, garnish with parsley, and serve with crusty bread, over creamy polenta, or alongside rice.